The Savior Solution Delusion

The world is avail with saviors.  Most religions have one.  Many are found in mythology.  And it appears that modern society will have a few more by the time evolution has its way with us.

The one I speak of isn't the current political savior (I think many would be chanting Obama at this)… It's energy.  And the desire to seek out the 'savior' of energy.

So far the list contains a competition.  This list will be in the order of the passion it was promoted with, rather than any facts given:
Zero Point Energy
Bio fuel production
Space-based Solar panels
Electric cars (yes, it was argued as an energy resource to me since they don't run on gas)

All presented with the voracity and passion of the disciples of saviors past.  And all proposed on the premise of "status quo".  Keep on doing things exactly as we do now.  260 Millon+ cars & trucks, roads, power grid, food production, driving around etc...    And allow the rest of the world to catch up.

With a healthy dose of skepticism and a rational regard for the facts of how energy works, here's my reply:

Current First World societies only exist because of resource extraction and importation from outside their society.  For example, there's no way for China to reach USA consumption levels from its own domestic energy & resource production.  It will be a net importer (as is the USA) for that to happen.  So will any other country that desires to industrialize to First World levels. The cost is increased Third World deprivation and the non-sustainable extraction of Forests & Ocean life.

And to this effect, there is no one "savior" for our coming energy problems.  Does the energy exist to fulfill our needs currently?  yes.  Hydrocarbon resources, and the Sun.  In effect: oil, coal and natural gas are all solar resources.  It's the Sun's energy stored in carbon form that took millions of years to create.  One could call oil "Ancient Sunlight". And it's our energy bonanza.

The other being the Sun.  Currently we have no technology to harvest sunlight at the production levels to match hydrocarbon energy output. Not even close.  But it’s possible with enough time. And it's important to consider time with energy.  Our problem is time.  Infrastructure takes time (7 - 11 years), Production takes time (3 - 6 months) new technology takes time (decades).  To look to any one resource (theoretical or not) as an ‘immediate savior’ is delusional thinking.  Whether it be Hydrogen, bio or panels, the evolution of the technology to harvest the resource, that matches hydrocarbon output, to create the infrastructure for billions of people is decades & decades off.  (Although getting started now would make sense.)

Our problem is now.  Perhaps a 10 year window, most likely not.   The lifeblood of industrialized society is oil.  It's the liquid fuel that drives our economy, creates everything in your home & business, makes the roads, cars and transportation structures possible, and feeds you.

We've been flat in World Production since 2005.  And decline rates of the massive oil fields around the world were expected to be 2-3% per year around 2030.  We have 6-8% decline rates in the majority of the world's fields right now. Mexico's largest oil field (Cantrell) went into terminal decline last year (2007). Unexpected, yes. More unexpected was the huge decline rate.  Since our energy problems have only come to light at the plateau of production, we're in trouble. 

The #1 place to start is education, then conservation.  Stretch out the timeline on the coming decline.  Having oil isn't the issue, we'll have it for a long time.  It's the steep decline rates without enough time to introduce the "next thing".

And the next thing is going to be a conglomeration of resources.  Technology is not an energy resource, but it can extend our timeline to evolve into the next major one.  The age of hydrocarbon will end after about 250 years.  We're over halfway through that timeline now.  If we don't fill the decline rates of hydrocarbon energy with viable, renewable resources, there will be consequences.  Some are: increased warfare, deepening poverty, die-off and political strife.  Anyone watching the news?

Solar Based Energy Savior for US?

I had a great conversation with a friend of mine that sits in the "more hopeful" camp of our energy future in it's current fashion (perpetual growth). He sent me an article as an example of how we'll be able to solve our energy issues.

Article Link & Excerpt:
http://hardware.slashdot.org/hardware/07/10/14/2129233.shtml

"The Pentagon issued a report indicating that space-based solar power 'has the potential to help the United States stave off climate change and avoid future conflicts over oil by harnessing the Sun's power to provide an essentially inexhaustible supply of clean energy.'

I went and read the actual report as well as the article. The report does lay out the immesnity of the problem .."energy and environmental security are not just problems for America, they are critical challenges for the entire world. Expanding human populations and declining natural resources are potential sources of local and strategic conflict in the 21st Century, and many see energy scarcity as the foremost threat to national security."

Not quoted here but also in the report, they use the term "Conflict Prevention", which is their way of saying "sustained militarization"

The report also states "The magnitude of the looming energy and environmental problems is significant enough to warrant consideration of all options, to include revisiting a concept called Space Based Solar Power" .... It would be wise to consider all options.. I tend to look at any publication that smacks of "This is THE solution!" falls into the "Saving Hero" mode of thinking. The solution will be mult-faceted. Working at the same time, differnent sources in different regions.

In looking at what's being said about SBSP, it's a "call to support & funding". Which means as a concept, it's Billons of dollars and decades away from being a feasible replacement. Further reading I find "SBSP will in turn also open space for a host of other activities that include space tourism, manufacturing, lunar or asteroid resource utilization, and eventually settlement to extend the human race." Ok Flash Gordon. This all presupposes a solved 'free energy' paradigm and is the kind of thing one finds in Venture Capitalist speak.

What other, perhaps more effective ways, can Billons of dollars be put into with the timelines we have? Where are we spending our efforts, assets and capital that could be better spent right now? Each of these questions produce different answers on the national, local, and in-home levels. All contribute to the whole.