Thursday, August 16, 2007

heat increase

A friend was telling me how hot Florida has been. Seems like it's always hotter. Last month there were record heat settings in the U.S. It's noteable that this was not a random occurrence, but rather it is a trend.

The last decade has seen more 'record heat' than the decades previous. Glacial melting has ramped up. The glacier in Juno Alaska I went to visit (Medenhall) has disappeared from the spot I saw it at in 1998. Which is the case with all such ice cover.

I found this chart on the NOAA site.



As I studied our energy use a few things jump out at me. The peak in temperature just before 1880 was our peak of Coal burning at the start of the industrial revolution. Then the transition was to oil. Oil provided far more energy in smaller quantity than coal. So our energy use still increased, but at a more efficient level, so the impact on the atmosphere was less. Of course oil use increases all through the 20th century, the US being the leading exporter until WWII. Notice the peak in temp variance just after the WWII period. We "spent the motherload" so-to-speak in regards to our domestic oil supply. Roosevelt had stated to the country that the U.S. did not have enough oil for WWIII. Hence the commencement of our military tenure with Saudi Arabia.

And of course since then the U.S and the rest of the industrialized world has dramatically increased the consumption of coal, natural gas & oil. As it follows we have the upward trend in temperature to the present day (above chart).


It will very likely not stop. There is no political leader, industry, or nation that is going to 'kick the habit' and stop an economy. Natural gas is in permanent decline now and is being replaced by coal. About 50% of the electricity in the United States comes from coal burning plants. 2/3rds of all oil consumed is for transportation. And even with the imminent, permanent decline in the world's oil production we still maintain that a fleet of 250 million cars and 18mpg as an acceptable 'status quo'.

I think we'll be forced to change, not because we want to, or because it would be right. It will be because we have no choice. That kind of change will be very difficult. Usually of the "kicking & screaming" variety.

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